NOTE: A big hat tip to Chuck DeVore of the Texas Policy Foundation for pointing to Shawn Ryan’s mid-July podcast interview of California Gov. Gavin Newsom. I used the interview to summarize what was uncovered.
Mark Twain once said there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics.” California Governor Gavin Newsom recently gave us a real-world case study of that idea, highlighting population growth, “record tourism,” and economic might. But when you strip away the spin, the facts look different.
Population: A Bounce or a Blip?
Yes, California’s population ticked up slightly last year—about 49,000 people. But that follows three years of steep declines totaling over 400,000. Growth is being propped up almost entirely by international immigration. Meanwhile, domestic out-migration continues as Californians leave for other states in search of affordability, opportunity, and quality of life.
| Period | Change (people) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2020 → Jul 2023 | -412,000 | Three consecutive years of decline |
| Jul 2023 → Jul 2024 | +49,000 (~0.13%) | Slight growth, still weak |
| 2024 Domestic Migration | -239,575 | Californians continued leaving for other states |
| Driver of 2024 growth | Net immigration | Immigrants offsetting out-migration |
Tourism: Nominal Records vs. Real Spending
Newsom points to “record-breaking tourism.” Visitor spending did rise to $157.3 billion in 2024. But once you factor in inflation in hotels, restaurants, and related services, the increase disappears. In real terms, tourism spending was flat—at best.
| Metric | Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Visitor spending (nominal) | $157.3B (+3% YoY) | New record in dollar terms |
| Hospitality inflation (avg 2024) | ~3.5% | Outpaced nominal growth |
| Real spending change | ~0% | Record evaporates after inflation |
The Economy: California vs. Florida and Texas
California is the “4th-largest economy in the world.” That’s technically true. But size isn’t the same as momentum. Over the past three years, California’s real GDP growth has lagged behind both Florida and Texas.
| State | Avg. Annual Growth | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Florida | 4.6% | Fastest |
| Texas | 3.9% | Strong |
| California | 2.3% | Lagging |
COVID and Education: Framing Matters
Newsom also claimed California fared better on COVID deaths and student outcomes. The reality is more nuanced:
- COVID: Florida has an older population, yet its age-adjusted death rate was slightly lower than California’s.
- Schools: Florida’s test scores started higher. Focusing only on declines during the pandemic ignores baseline differences.
| Topic | Newsom’s Claim | Context |
|---|---|---|
| NAEP Scores | Florida declined more | Florida started from a higher baseline |
| COVID Deaths | Florida had higher per-capita deaths | Age-adjusted rates show Florida slightly better |
Final Take
Statistics don’t lie—but politicians can shape them to fit the story they want to tell. California’s population “recovery” is marginal and immigration-driven, its tourism “records” fade under inflation, and its economic growth lags peer states. The truth is in the details, not the sound bites.
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