DISCLOSURE: I naively voted FOR the 2008 ballot authorizing California to issue $10B in bonds to construct a high speed railway, the “Bullet Train,” connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles at a proposed total cost of $33B and a promised completion date was 2028.
An Exercise in Political Folly
If Sacramento politicians focused upon actual need rather than federal dollars, the “bullet train” would have had a much greater chance of success. These federal dollars were tied to California achieving specific milestones in terms of track completion. So, rather than beginning where there were immediate critical needs (i.e. connecting costly, dense urban areas with outlying, affordable communities) the decision was made to begin by connecting two smaller cities in California’s Central Valley. The naive and typical political thinking was that this would enable the easy and quick construction of many miles of track and ensure a continuing flow of federal money.
Twelve years later the estimated total budget for completion is over $98.5B and constantly growing. If and when the first section between two small cities is completed, the lack of need and the high cost overruns will guarantee that it will operate at a loss. And yet California politicians, all of them democrats, insist taxpayers keep funding it.
Assuming there was a genuine need for high speed rail connecting San Francisco with Los Angeles the cost overruns will prevent it from being price competitive with the frequent and inexpensive flight options available. There was a much greater chance of success if politicans in charge started construction at the beginning, rather than the end.
I envisioned five phases to the project. The first two, which could have been done in tandem, would have connected San Francisco and Los Angeles outlying suburban areas where many are now forced to live because of housing costs. This would have served a definite need while also satisfying California’s Green initiatives. In others words it would have gotten cars off the road.
The five phases I envisioned follow. As I’m neither a transportation nor construction engineer, ignore the specifics. It is the general concept that draws the difference between sensible and political thinking.
Phase I: San Jose to Stockton via Tracy
In 2018, The San Jose Mercury news published an article highlighting Stockton, CA as the nation’s leader in terms of 90-minute+ daily commutes. There was sufficient demand for high speed rail connecting the Central Valley to San Jose even prior to Google’s significant investments in San Jose real estate and the subsequent plans to create a massive transit hub. While the Diablo Range adds complexity, there’s been talk of building a highway across it for decades. This was an incredible opportunity lost by shortsighted politicians.
Phase II: Los Angeles to San Bernardino
Even worse than San Francisco Bay-area traffic is the nightmare commuters face on a daily basis in Los Angeles. Exasperating the situation in Los Angeles is its large geographic area. In terms of geography, Los Angeles is 10 times larger than San Francisco. The Los Angeles metropolitan and outlying areas have screamed for many decades for traffic relief. Once again, however, politicians ignored their constituents and wasted taxpayer money. And there is no end in sight for this wasteful spending.
Phase III: Stockton to Sacramento
A logical northern termination point would be an extension of the Stockton terminus to Sacramento. Sacramento is the seat of state government and has the 6th largest population in the state. While initially only providing high speed rail to Silicon Valley, it will ultimately connect it to virtually every other large population center in California except Palm Desert and San Diego. And these two areas are naturals for extensions upon successful completion of the pertinent and useful sections.
Phase IV: San Bernardino to Bakersfield
Combined, the San Bernardino / Riverside metropolitan area has a population similar to Fresno, CA. Linking these two areas would accomplish three laudable goals: 1) it would open up the Central Valley to greater commerce; 2) it would help mitigate some of the housing costs and traffic issues in San Bernardino metro area, and; 3) it would serve as the logical southern terminus for what should have been the final phase of the effort: connecting northern and southern ends of the Central Valley.
Phase V: Bakersfield to Stockton via Fresno
And thus we come to what should have been the final phase of the effort. At first glance this appears to be easy. Heck, look at all the flat land. And as the population density is low, there aren’t as many people to argue against it, just some pesky farmers that merely supply the country with food…
The decision by California politicians to begin at the end guarantees the perpetuation of an expensive, useless boondoggle.
In Conclusion
Rather than admit defeat and stop throwing bad money after bad, California politicians refuse to terminate this ill-conceived and poorly executed initiative. The end result will be a very expensive railroad that nobody will be able to afford going to no place anybody wants to go.